Scenario planning report on the Anthropic-Pentagon crisis (February–March 2026), produced using Shell’s methodology in the tradition of Pierre Wack. Eight narratives — four main scenarios and four variants activated by a Taiwan-TSMC shock — organized along two axes: AI sector-wide revenue sustainability and the transatlantic geopolitical context.

The report integrates analyses by Gregory Allen (CSIS/Stratechery), Andrew Sharp (SharpText), Ben Thompson (Stratechery), and Casey Newton (Platformer), with a thematic bibliography of approximately 60 sources.

Epistemological note: produced largely through conversation with Claude (Anthropic). The risk of confirmation bias is a structural limitation declared in the document.